After a period of intense precipitation, with more on the way, it is clear that California's multi-year drought it over.
Let's begin with the percentage of normal precipitation for the last two months (below). Nearly the entire state is above normal, with many of the mountain areas receiving 200-400% of normal.
Soil moisture measured by the GRACE satellite? Above normal (blue colors)!
Streamflow? Nearly all the state is above normal, with most of it much above normal.
Snowpack in the Sierra? WAY above normal...nearly 200%
The famous Palmer Drought Index? Most of the state is well above normal...extremely wet.
California reservoir levels? Total reservoir storage is above normal....and remember California has multi-year storage capacity (see below)
Strangely enough, the official U.S. drought monitor (see below) suggests that half of the state is still in drought, with nearly quarter of the area in extreme drought. Does not seem to fit the observations.
Let's begin with the percentage of normal precipitation for the last two months (below). Nearly the entire state is above normal, with many of the mountain areas receiving 200-400% of normal.
The famous Palmer Drought Index? Most of the state is well above normal...extremely wet.
California reservoir levels? Total reservoir storage is above normal....and remember California has multi-year storage capacity (see below)
Strangely enough, the official U.S. drought monitor (see below) suggests that half of the state is still in drought, with nearly quarter of the area in extreme drought. Does not seem to fit the observations.
This drought monitor has a history of exaggerating drought or not dropping drought fast enough--so the current situation is not unusual. A few small reservoirs in southern California are still low (like the Cachuma reservoir that supplies Santa Barbara). And the water table in the Central Valley has been dropping for decades---but that is mainly from the "mining" of ancient water to irrigate the vast and expanded agriculture of the central valley of CA.
So by any reasonable measure (rainfall, snowpack, soil moisture, reservoir level), the CA drought of the past few years is over. Furthermore, the latest model forecasts suggest ALL of California is going to be hammered with precipitation during the next three days (see 72h total below), with 3-10 inches along the coast and in the Sierra.
In fact, heavy rain has hit the last dry area of the state: southern CA, resulting in flooding and mudslides. The map below shows the amounts over the past 48h--some locations received more than 4 inches.
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